🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."